Administration & Management

It's Art of Governance & Not Commerce Alone

OIL POLITICS, SPECULATION, CHAIN REACTION AND MANAGEMENT


It requires quantum of intelligence, to infer from what is happening in the markets, or politico-socio-economic across the globe, to why it is happening. Things are never as simple as they seem to be. This would become comprehendible and evident as soon as one reads, relates and analyses the instances mentioned hereunder:

Crude oil prices peaked to US $ 100 – 115 a barrel in April and May 2011 and moved downwards after that to touch a rate of US $ 90 – 92 per barrel in June 2011. In such a scenario, price increase by the Union Government should have been announced in April – May 2011, but the same did not occur. The Government found June 2011 to be the auspicious time for announcing price hike when the prices had nearly normalized. What could have been the motive for doing so? Simple answer is that April – May 2011 was the time when five states were going to elect the assembly members. The states being, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry.

If one goes by what the campaign managers of Congress had to say on the Rahul Gandhi’s much publicized kisan padyatra-(which as claimed was undertaken to champion the cause of the farmers of the region) –  was conceived to detract the public attention from the issue of hike in petroleum products and their possible spiraling effect on inflation. This yatra detracted the lot of electronic media attention from the campaign that opposition forces such as BJP and Left were seeking to build up on the oil price hike related issues.

Since the Oil shock of 1973, USA strategically took measures to control the oil market by keeping continued focus on West Asian Region. In 1980, Jimmy Carter, the then President of USA declared Persian Gulf an exclusive zone of American influence and created a rapid deployment of forces, which latter turned into what is known as US Central Command or CENTCOM. 

As is being believed by majority that skirmish in Libya is behind recent spurt in prices, should correct their facts. Libya produces less than 3 per cent of global petroleum output. Where as Saudi Arabia has already made up for the current shortfall and its excess stocks are more than that of Libya and Algeria put together. In fact in present situation too oil production at many of Libyan facilities continues even in civil war there.

The argument being forwarded by few is that rising demand from China and India has forced an upward trend in oil prices is also unjustified. Though these two countries do account for growing share of global demand, but then same is counterbalanced by slower demand from USA and Europe.

There is still a wide spread perception that cartel of Oil Exporting Countries can manipulate and influence the prices by changing the level of their supplies. Reality today is much different. The OPEC has turned from being a cartel to being a minor player today. Non OPEC countries now account for increasingly significant proportion of global supply. Russia has already snatched the title of being largest supplier of crude oil from Saudi Arabia since 2009. 

Many more such instances may be quoted. It’s not being quoted in anticipation that the variety of above instances is good enough to comprehend that nearly none of the factors assumed or arguments forwarded are capable of forcing any kind of hike in prices of the crude oil.

 

Then what is it, which is responsible for hike in crude oil price?

 

…….any guesses, if not, then storm your grey matter and keep visiting this place in hope of getting answer to this simple question.

 

Always Yours — As Usual —- Saurabh Singh

 

 

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