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CHINDIA – AS I SEE

The news of Chinese Army PLA moving, 19 kilometers deep, inside the Indian territory is old one. Now the new and important development is that since 1930 Hrs IST they started vacating their positions and till now (i.e., when you may be reading this article) would have nearly vacated.

I was always certain and specially turned more confident of my views on CHINDIA since 2001 onwards.  I saw the fact as if it were the destiny that were conspiring to keeps these two nations on the same side.

Though, I am not going to write much, so I am just attaching three separate comments and analysis I presented in response to two news items published 11 days ago, and one just 03 days ago. I knew that masses will not agree with my view point, but then this has been a history now. On the other side masses have never agreed with any one individuals. My comments/ analysis are serially numbered (in the way they were posted) at news sight:

 1.

Sometimes I doubt that Chinese army really has any bad intentions towards India, as this is something that will prove costly and lasting adventure for PLA. As India despite of lack of very good connectivity to borders via road and rail has the capacity to surprise Chinese Forces by its huge number alone, though cost of transportation may be higher for Indian when compared with that of China. The important aspect and insight that I am getting is, is that Chinese now want to block the infiltration of Uyghers and other trained militants from Pakistan. If this is the case then they should take Indian authorities into confidence and ask for a safe passage to execute its intentions. Any kind of mis-understanding would not alone dent Chinese Might (roughly 2/3 of India) and USA and Pakistan will stand to gain from it. If the issue is something else then I need to analyze further. Consequently one of its allies North Korea too will be slaughtered by South Korean Forces with various kind of aid from USA. Chinese should try to considered the border pact that too place between Indians and then Chinese Emperor in 1840 (approx). Hope Chinese are not deaf and idiots at same time. If they are then they should have an emergency plan (in case their forces engage with India) to take care of democratic revolt that would get a unfettered access and control at Tianmaan Square.

 2.

The militants trained by Pakistan after having turned Frankenstein monster for them, have also attempted to threaten Chinese sovereignty, specially vides on an ancient trade route connecting Ladakh to Yarkand in Xinjiang, China. Now its better for China to seek India’s co-operation in controlling the religion of terrorism and militancy, than thinking itself to be almighty to do what they want. Those 50 malnourished men of PLA are not being made to land in Jails in India for ever ( I do not suggest shooting those 50) due to patience and also due to it being a responsible power. As Chinese army (approx 8.5 in number) is no match for India’s (approx 16 soldiers). Anyway I do not want to talk this language till all the options are not exhausted, as even sacrifice of our one soldiers life is much costlier to their 50 and is no match in value terms. Chinese may be fed up with their population but Indians are not. I suggest them to recall preachings of their scholar who earned knowledge from Nalanda and Takshshila besides preachings of Prince Mahendra and Princess Sanghmitra about Buddhist ways of life.

 3.

Though it would be better for the Government of India starts considering bilateral relations between India and China in present context. If required Salman Khurshid should cancel his proposed visit citing the posture of PLA as reason. Government may further consider about not allowing the Chinese Premier enter into Indian Airspace or Ground Location based on such developments. It would be better to communicate it to Chinese at earliest time. Please do not use force immediately, as tensions between India and China on border issues will give USA Army and Navy a good advantage in case when it comes to tackling by North Korea, creating advantageous position in Yellow Sea, beside providing them with opportunity to promote and protect the heirs of Chinese Emperor (who was forced to flee by PLA in 1948) and provide them with all the support required to take control at least of Taiwan and Hong Kong. This would be in addition to funding of support required to be extended to Democratic Movement in China. China will automatically learn that how international diplomacy is handled.

I would love to hear the comments from audiences…

 

                                                                                                             …………… Always Yours — as Usual — — Saurabh Singh

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A FICTION: NOT FAR AWAY FROM RECENT FUTURE REALITY

A FICTION: NOT FAR AWAY FROM RECENT FUTURE REALITY

In late evening, when I had just pressed the shut down button of my workstation, a colleague of mine entered the office chamber (Officially allotted to me to work).Hello, was the first word uttered out by her and before I could ask the purpose, she herself expressed that she planned to have my company while walking back to home, at least the part of distance that was common to we both. I welcomed the idea and also thanked her for the same. Thus the journey homewards started. While on walk the momentary silence was done away by my colleague, when she requested the permission to ask question that was coming to her mind. I agreed to help her to the limited capacity of mine.Image- Bricks of Gold

 Probably it was the prices of yellow metal that were troubling her and my colleague wanted to know, where the prices are expected to move in future and why. This I am inferring from the talks that continued.

She started the conversation by posing her curiosity as ahead: “Where do you see the price of gold going in the days to come?”

Since, at that moment, I was not exactly focusing on ‘investment advisory’, so I responded by saying that “on a broad level, the price are supposed to continue their northward journey.”

It seems that my response confused her a bit, as she soon came up with another question that “what I mean, when I say a broad level.”

I got the point and then explained to her that “the prices of any commodity do not move in a straight line. When I say on a broad level, it means that the prices will keep moving northwards, but in between they may drop as well, but they will pick up again, and thus will continue to scale up.”

It seems, that she was not ready to buy anything that I said, therefore, she questioned that what lay behind my confidence, which she visualized while I was answering her first curiosity.

Suddenly I realized that majority of investors; rarely scan the external and vital economic variables that are often of political nature. This made me aware that now I need to go bit detailed and also in a manner that she could easily comprehend.

“Well, I was just reading through some material and I realized that there is another solid reason for gold prices to go up,” I told her.

“Is it something other than all the money printing that is happening and is likely to happen in the days to come, all around the world?” she asked.

“Yes”, I answered.

“So what is this new reason?” she was now more curious.Image - Gold with a Medival Painiting in Background

Now I started by posing a question as ahead “Ever heard of Hugo Chavez?” Pat came the reply, “nope” with a supplementary question that now who’s he?

He is the President of Venezuela, a country in South America.”                                

Probably she got a bit more confused and said that she knew that, but expressed her surprise on the issue that what “Venezuela” has got to do with the price of gold.

This made me aware that now my job was to explain history, international polity, and international trade, cost of transaction and accounting to her, and all this in very limited time of few minutes. I knew that I may be bombarded with whorls of questions.

 I started with letting her know that Venezuela has the 15th largest gold reserves in the world amounting to 401.1 tonnes. A lot of this gold is lying abroad in bImage - Golden Fairyanks in New York, London and Zurich.

“But why will a country keep its gold overseas?” she interrupted.

 I started to introduce her with history. I said that “a part of the reason comes from history. Till August 15, 1971, the world was on a gold standard. Paper currencies were ultimately convertible into gold. This meant that countries had to settle their deficits in gold.” I followed this by giving an instance from international trade. I asked her to assume that England and Germany are exporting and importing goods from each other. At the end if France exports more to England than England to France, there is a deficit.” This means that England had to pay France. This payment was to be made in gold. A look at her face made me feel that she has now started picking up what I was attempting to explain. I carried on by adding that “now this meant that gold had to be physically moved from England to France, which of course was a pain. Movement meant cost of insurance as well as security.”

Image - Gold being Transported via Air

She was prompt in asking that “what was the way out?”

 I added for these reasons “a lot of this gold is simply stored overseas at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a part of the Federal Reserve of the United States, the Central Bank of the US).”

“How do you think this is going to help?”

It’s simple; I added and just narrated what Peter Bernstein writes in his book “The Power of Gold”. For example, if England lost gold to France, a guard at the Federal Reserve had merely to bring a dolly to England’s closet, trundle the gold to the French closet, and note the change in the bookkeeping records.’

She got the point, and allowed my request to take her back to Hugo Chavez.

The deliberations continued further, certainly with some statistical inferences. Estimates suggest that nearly 211 tonnes of the 400-odd tonnes of gold that Venezuela has are with banks abroad. Chavez has asked this gold to repatriated back to Venezuela.”Image - Hugo Chavez Nationalises the Gold Mines

Now this brings a twist in the story, and the discussion to follow will also attempt to answer possible reason for Hugo Chavez’s such an act.

 “Chavez has had an anti-US stance for years and may feel that because of that Venezuela runs the risk of its gold being seized.”

“Gold Seized? Why would such happen and does the possibility of such an act exist?” was the latest in series of questions.

“It sure is. I explained the same by making her aware of the ongoing Libyan foreign exchange reserves crisis, which happens to be an outcome of its foreign reserves being seized by allied nations with declaration of war earlier this year.”

 “But what has all this got to do with the price of gold? To me it’s as simple as me wanting to have gold in my own locker rather than the bank locker.”

I agreed to her statement, while continuing to explain by adding that all is not that straightforward as concluded by her, though to some extent she was correct. The straight forward part of transaction would be limited to 99 tonnes of total 211 tonnes lying abroad, as this 99 tonnes are deposited with the Bank of England in London. Repatriating that back to Venezuela would be a straightforward process.”

Image - Gold Jewellary at Display

 Now comes the not so straight forward part, which happens to be of the tune of 112 tonnes of the gold and same is lying abroad with what are known as bullion banks. J P Morgan is one of them. Estimates suggest that Venezuelan gold worth $807 million (or around 450,000 ounces of gold) is lying with it.”

 She was instant, and argued that this should also be as straight forward as it is in the case of Bank of England, London, while simultaneously her facial expressions conveyed me that she wanted to know, if I dare to differ from her opinion. Certainly, I had to differ, and added that things are not always as simple as they seem to be. The statistics again came handy in quoting that “estimates suggest that the total amount of physical gold with J P Morgan currently stands at around 338,303 ounces (1 troy ounce equals 31.1 grams).”

Now, it seemed that she was out of reasons, as she expressed her ignorance about having to come across any news in media regarding, such a huge bank robbery in which approximately 1,11,697 ounce or 3473.8 kilo grams worth gold was looted.  I had to instantly chip in by saying that, this is not a case of bank lifting, but a way of functioning of financial system in general and banking sector in particular. Let me add an example to illustrate it? I sought her permission. The phenomenon goes as explained ahead [the attempt was to explain the process by making it as easy as possible, so that even a novice can understand].Image - Gold of Merchants in Various Weights put at London Central Bank

“Central banks around the world had a huge amount of gold lying in their vaults, not earning any return. The end of 2007 witnessed the stock of gold with central banks around the world rising to 32,000 tonnes of gold.”

 I requested her to be more attentive to whatever I was going to add now. Out of the 32,000 tonnes gold held, the Central Bank lent approximately 14,000 tonnes to Bullion Banks like J P Morgan. James Turk and John Rubino in their coauthored book The Collapse of the Dollar, have argued that “lending, for instance, involves the central bank transferring gold to a major private bank, known as bullion bank, which pays the central bank a small-but-positive interest rate, then sells the gold in the open market.”

In this manner “central banks convert the gold into cash and then deploy this cash, somewhere to earn some positive rate of return. This based on a very fundamental assumption that idle assets provide no return, and there is fair possibility that such assets may ultimately add up some cost to the holder.” These costs may range from cost of storage to cost of security. As per meaning conveyed by the operative word “lending”, since the gold has been lent, therefore, the central banks have all the rights to, and can demand it back, whenever they want.

She chipped in by adding that probably “this is what Venezuela is doing right now”; and thus conveyed me a feeling that she was sincerely following the every single word uttered by me. 

 I nodded in agreement and continued further by adding that, since, the bullion banks have promised to return the borrowed gold to the central banks so they will have to return the same. In prevailing situations these bullion banks are not having the volume of gold that was lent to them by Central Bank. In financial and monetary world, this position is conveyed by the term ‘short’, and this means that these bullion banks are ‘short’ gold.

Now comes a significant turn in events, that may work as catalyst to force the prices of gold to break the roof. As the situation deliberated above suggests that, in case, sometime in future, these bullion banks are asked to deposit the volume of  gold lent to them by central bank, they will be left with no choice and would be obligated to buy gold in order to repay the central banks’.”

“So, as I can get, it goes like, that in such a scenario the bullion banks like J P Morgan will now have to buy back gold from the market in order to repay the Venezuelan government, given the situation that Venezuela has around 450,000 ounces of gold deposited with J P Morgan, whereas J P Morgan at present has only 338,303 ounces of gold in its accounts/ record books,” she added.

Exactly, I said in agreement, and carried the deliberations forward by adding, that this buying will lead to the price of gold rising further. I knew that now she has got answer to her question, but then too, I continued it by saying that this is only one part of the story.

Much like a child, who is curious to know about everything, she was now eager to learn that what the remaining part of story was now. She requested me to unfold the other part of the story.

I continued by giving her a reference of a report titled “Thing That Make You Go Hmmm” , and told that this report points out, ‘Chavez’s move could set in motion a chain of events whereby Central banks who store the bulk of their gold overseas in ‘safe’ locations scramble to repossess their country’s true ‘wealth’. If that happens, the most high-stakes game of musical chairs the world has ever seen will have begun’,” I said.

“This sounds very scary”, she added.

Image - Gold derails the US $ and US Economy“Yes, you are very much correct while mentioning that the report further states that ‘any delay in repatriating Venezuela’s gold could potentially start a frantic scramble by central banks to claim their physical. God save the scenario, but if it actually happens, rest assured that gold price will be on fire. A scenario will take place, which has neither been seen in past, nor even imagined.

It will give birth to an economic tsunami of magnitude, which will turn the great economic recession witnessed by world or even the jasmine revolution and contribution of social media to same to seem dwarf.

Don’t be surprised if I that there is enough in media to believe U S Govt. Manufactured Fake Gold

Perhaps, there are only few who can imagine the magnitude of risk, specifically if they are not linked to foreign trade. Let me illustrate it. It’s one thing to counterfeit a twenty or hundred dollar bill. The amount of financial damage is usually limited to a specific region and only affects dozens of people and thousands of dollars. Secret Service agents quickly notify the banks on how to recognize these phony bills and retail outlets usually have procedures in place (such as special pens to test the paper) to stop their proliferation.

Image - U S Government Manufactured Fake Gold

This is the most sacred of all commodities because it is thought to be the most trusted reliable and valuable means of saving wealth.

A recent discovery — in October of 2009 — has been suppressed by the main stream media but has been circulating among the “big money” brokers and financial kingpins and is just now being revealed to the public. It involves the gold in Fort Knox — the US Treasury gold — that is the equity of our national wealth. In short, millions (with an “m”) of gold bars are fake!.Who did this? None, but the United States Government, as claimed by Chinese Authorities.

Background
In October of 2009 the Chinese received a shipment of gold bars. Gold is regularly exchanges between countries to pay debts and to settle the so-called balance of trade. Most gold is exchanged and stored in vaults under the supervision of a special organization based in London, the London Bullion Market Association (or LBMA). When the shipment was received, the Chinese government asked that special tests be performed to guarantee the purity and weight of the gold bars. In this test, four small holed are drilled into the gold bars and the metal is then analyzed.

Officials were shocked to learn that the bars were fake. They contained cores of tungsten with only a outer coating of real gold. What’s more, these gold bars, containing serial numbers for tracking, originated in the US and had been stored in Fort Knox for years. There were reportedly between, 5600 to 5700 bars, weighing 400 oz. each, in the shipment!

At first many gold experts assumed the fake gold originated in China, the world’s best knock-off producers. The Chinese were quick to investigate and issued a statement that implicated the US in the scheme.

 

What the Chinese Uncovered

Roughly 15 years ago — during the Clinton Administration [think Robert Rubin, Sir Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers] — between 1.3 and 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten blanks were allegedly manufactured by a very high-end, sophisticated refiner in the USA [more than 16 Thousand metric tonnes]. Subsequently, 640,000 of these tungsten blanks received their gold plating and WERE shipped to Ft. Knox and remain there to this day.

According to the Chinese investigation, the balance of this 1.3 million to 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten cache was also gold plated and then allegedly “sold” into the international market. Apparently, the global market is literally “stuffed full of 400 oz salted bars”. Perhaps, its worth is as much as, 600-billion U S dollars.

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

 RELATED LINKS FOR READERS WHO WANT TO GO IN MORE DETAILS TO BEFORE COMMENTING ON STORY
  1. http://etfdailynews.com/2011/08/17/venezuelan-president-hugo-chavez-sends-precious-metal-etfs-a-wakeup-call-gld-iau-slv-gdx-agq/
  2. http://philosophers-stone.co.uk/wordpress/2011/08/hugo-chavez-gold-runs-bank-runs-and-bank-holidays/
  3. http://profit.ndtv.com/news/show/chavez-officially-nationalizes-venezuela-s-gold-industry-174207
  4. http://notime4bull.com/aggregator/sources/13
  5. http://mikepiro.com/blog/as-chavez-pulls-venezuelas-gold-from-jp-morgan-is-the-great-scramble-for-physical-starting/
  6. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/traders-brace-for-venezuela-gold-transfer/article2134031/print/
  7. http://www.bighaber.com/haber/chavez-to-nationalize-venezuelan-gold-industry-1072000.html
  8. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/global_082611.php
  9. http://americasfinancialmeltdown.blogspot.com/2010/11/below-is-antiwar_4391.html
  10. http://mikepiro.com/blog/ron-paul-audit-federal-reserve-gold-stores/
  11. http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/061976-2009-11-26-us-govt-manufactured-fake-gold.htm
  12. http://www.the-boondocks.org/forum/index.php?t=msg&&goto=157202#msg_157202s

OIL POLITICS, SPECULATION, CHAIN REACTION AND MANAGEMENT

It requires quantum of intelligence, to infer from what is happening in the markets, or politico-socio-economic across the globe, to why it is happening. Things are never as simple as they seem to be. This would become comprehendible and evident as soon as one reads, relates and analyses the instances mentioned hereunder:

Crude oil prices peaked to US $ 100 – 115 a barrel in April and May 2011 and moved downwards after that to touch a rate of US $ 90 – 92 per barrel in June 2011. In such a scenario, price increase by the Union Government should have been announced in April – May 2011, but the same did not occur. The Government found June 2011 to be the auspicious time for announcing price hike when the prices had nearly normalized. What could have been the motive for doing so? Simple answer is that April – May 2011 was the time when five states were going to elect the assembly members. The states being, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry.

If one goes by what the campaign managers of Congress had to say on the Rahul Gandhi’s much publicized kisan padyatra-(which as claimed was undertaken to champion the cause of the farmers of the region) –  was conceived to detract the public attention from the issue of hike in petroleum products and their possible spiraling effect on inflation. This yatra detracted the lot of electronic media attention from the campaign that opposition forces such as BJP and Left were seeking to build up on the oil price hike related issues.

Since the Oil shock of 1973, USA strategically took measures to control the oil market by keeping continued focus on West Asian Region. In 1980, Jimmy Carter, the then President of USA declared Persian Gulf an exclusive zone of American influence and created a rapid deployment of forces, which latter turned into what is known as US Central Command or CENTCOM. 

As is being believed by majority that skirmish in Libya is behind recent spurt in prices, should correct their facts. Libya produces less than 3 per cent of global petroleum output. Where as Saudi Arabia has already made up for the current shortfall and its excess stocks are more than that of Libya and Algeria put together. In fact in present situation too oil production at many of Libyan facilities continues even in civil war there.

The argument being forwarded by few is that rising demand from China and India has forced an upward trend in oil prices is also unjustified. Though these two countries do account for growing share of global demand, but then same is counterbalanced by slower demand from USA and Europe.

There is still a wide spread perception that cartel of Oil Exporting Countries can manipulate and influence the prices by changing the level of their supplies. Reality today is much different. The OPEC has turned from being a cartel to being a minor player today. Non OPEC countries now account for increasingly significant proportion of global supply. Russia has already snatched the title of being largest supplier of crude oil from Saudi Arabia since 2009. 

Many more such instances may be quoted. It’s not being quoted in anticipation that the variety of above instances is good enough to comprehend that nearly none of the factors assumed or arguments forwarded are capable of forcing any kind of hike in prices of the crude oil.

 

Then what is it, which is responsible for hike in crude oil price?

 

…….any guesses, if not, then storm your grey matter and keep visiting this place in hope of getting answer to this simple question.

 

Always Yours — As Usual —- Saurabh Singh

 

 

THE JASMINE REVOLUTION — Part – I

At times, few events, though not very often noticed, normally not even thought worth being covered by national media, but when the acts happen to be of SUPREME SACRIFICE or same order, change course of not alone history but geography too. The attempt is not to dub an act of self immolation as an act of bravery, and normally hundreds of cases of self immolation and attempts of self immolation get reported in media every year, besides lot many which even fail to find space in news media in nearly all the corners of the world which without fuelling in a minor change in governance.

The name “Mohamed Bouazizi” is not a famous or well known name even today, and thus indirectly gives an impression that history in due course of time may even forget to contain any record of this name for reference of future generations. The act of self immolation by this Tunisian Street Vendor to protest against the corruption is an apt example of helplessness being faced by common men, irrespective of him being a citizen, subject, at mercy of any dictator, fascist or Junta or probably any other form of Structure of Governance.

Strange are ways things are destined, much beyond human vision and imagination, it seems if  21st Century were a Century of Convergence of Scale for nearly every sphere of human related activities. A Century standing witness to Convergence of Communication Technology and Tools, Convergence of Economies of Nations, Convergence of Trade, Convergence of Financial Governance, and perhaps even Convergence of Revolutions against Governance Structures across various nations and probably the list continue…s, neither can it be covered in this deliberation nor will it be attempted.

Till a couple of months back, the individual of the day was busy in himself thinking that all the problems could happen and will happen with others only, aptly defined selfish by Adam Smith and the league, was thinking of governance all around the globe being cool, calm and pleasant except the places messed up by United States of America. Perhaps still the individuals will remain individuals and will rarely form a society or nation; as people aware of history know very well that even the phenomenon or concept of nation is a gift of as recent as nineteenth century.

Connecting back, it was morning of December 17, 2010 when Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26 years old street vendor of Tunisia immolated himself protesting against corruption, an event of the magnitude often not even noticed by world media, the Arab World has not remained the same as it was till hours before of this act on the same day. It has left whole geo-political area simmering and inhabitants rumbling.  It has initiated a chain reaction.

The chain reaction, that has already made twenty three years old rule of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, (in power since 1987) now a chapter in history of Tunisia. It did not stop here itself. It perhaps turned a torchbearer for other nations of geopolitical area often called as Gulf (British call it as Middle East), or as the author calls it, the Middle West. It did not stop at Tunisia. The next link in chain turned out to be Egypt. In Egypt, the war hero of Egypt Israel War of 1973 that made Egypt a power centre in Middle West and one time air force officer Hosni Mubarak was shown door after his thirty year rule. To world it may look a silent transition made success by people of Egypt but sources say that at least 300 people lost their life and another 3000 suffered injuries. Reality about real causalities is not known due to initial crack down on media and still no real transition to any new form of governance taking place. It is probably still another Hosni Mubarak just individual may differ, as no real transition to any form of governance has taken place, but junta in control.

“The phenomenon being deliberated, as on date, has come to be known as SIDI BOUZID REVOLT in Arab World and as JASMINE REVOLUTION elsewhere.”

Similar turmoil, protests against governments in place, in numerous other nations of gulf is being seen and also the ruthlessness and lack of human emotions with which they are being suppressed and retaliated by various governments in place. It is the same story today in Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Libya and Yemen.

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

India Joined the Select Club of Countries making a Fighter Jet from Scratch with TEJAS

India on Monday joined the select club of countries making a fighter jet from scratch when Indian Air Force flew for the first time the lightweight indigenous multi-role Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas in a clear wintry sky here for initial operational clearance (IOC). TEJAS LIGHT COMBAT AIRCRAFT

Defence Minister A. K. Antony handed over the service certificate of the world’s smallest military aircraft to Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal P V Naik in the presence of top defence and government officials.

The supersonic fourth generation fighter will form a 200-strong fleet for the IAF to replace the ageing Russian-made MiG-21 fleet and increase the squadron strength as a potent strike force by 2012.
TEJAS LIGHT COMBAT AIRCRAFT
“This is the first time an indigenously designed and developed military fighter aircraft has been certified for air force operations,” state-run Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) official K Jayaprakash Rao said.

The IOC involves specific process, including validation tests to determine the aircraft’s various operational functions including avionics, subsystems, thrust, aerodynamics, propulsion and radar.

The certificate was given by the Regional Centre for Military Airworthiness (RCMA) of the Centre for Military Airworthiness and Certification (Cemilac), a lab of the defence research organisation.

The fly-by-wire Tejas, which was beset by chronic delays and cost overruns, has been developed by the state-run Aeronautical Defense Agency (ADA) and manufactured by the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) in Bangalore in partnership with a host of public-private aerospace firms.

The successive delays caused by multiple factors, including sanctions by the US over a decade ago against India for conducting the second nuclear test in May 1998, led the project cost to rise to a whopping Rs 5,778 crore from the initial estimate of Rs 3,300 crore in the mid-1980s.

“This is a historic day for the burgeoning Indian aerospace industry and military aviation, as IOC signifies a major milestone in the design and development of the LCA,” Rao said on the margins of the event.

“Initially pilots fly four aircraft to check all its parametres, including flight controls, Mach speed and weaponisation for final operational clearance (FOC) and induction into the fleet as frontline fighter jets,” a senior air force official said.

“The majestic display of the lean-and-mean flying machine demonstrated the integration of all sensors and weapons, besides safety and reliability within the specified flight envelope,” Rao noted.

The ADA and HAL conducted 1,500 test flights involving 11 aircraft, including five prototypes in the past decade, after its maiden flight Jan 4, 2001 as a technology demonstrator.

Under the limited series production, HAL is manufacturing eight aircraft for clearance flights and will take up the air force’s initial order to deliver 20 jets to form the first Tejas squadron. It will be based at the Sulur air base near Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu.

The IAF has also placed an additional order in 2010 for 20 more Tejas for the second squadron to be raised at Kayathir near Tuticorin in the southern state where the air force is setting up a new base this decade.

A LOOK ON SOME FASTEST GROWING ECONOMIES–AT A RATE HIGHER THAN INDIA-NOTHING TO BE SURPRISED

GHANA

Several African nations are now growing at a rapid pace. So, this way Ghana also is no exception. It’s unique only in a way that, no nation is witnessing the growth in GDP rate as high as Ghana. Since a long GHANAtime, unflattering adjectives like ‘worst managed’, ‘disastrous’, etc., were used when it came to talking of Ghana; but now they do not hold true. The Ghana of today has come a long way ahead in its journey towards prosperity and has earned the status of being the world’s fastest growing economy today. Ghana’s economy is growing at a phenomenal rate of 20.15 per cent. Ghana is oil-rich, has large gold and diamond deposits, while at the same time, the boom that is being witnessed by its tourism sector has added more glitter to its diamonds.

QATAR

Qatar is an oil- and gas-rich nation with world’s third largest gas reserves. It has undoubtedly enjoyed the status of being a nation which is world’s largest exporters of petroleum, and has got something more remarkable added to it. The growth in GDP of Qatar has helped it in achieving a new distinction, and that is of being the world’s second fastest growing economy growing at a rate of 12.337 per cent. The economy of Qatar is QATARprimarily oil-based. High oil and gas prices have boosted the economy of this Gulf state over the last few years. The per capita income of Qataris stands at $66,100, which in comparative terms makes it, a nation with sixth highest per capita in the world, and still Qataris do not know a phenomenon known as Income Tax .

TURKMENISTAAN

Turkmenistan is also not far away when it comes in terms of being blessed with reserves of natural gas. In this context Turkmenistan stands at the rank of being world’s fourth-largest nation in terms of owning the reserves of natural gas. In present story it has earned slot at number three, due to it being the world’s third fastest growing nation with a GDP growth rate of 12.18 per cent. Although oil and gas is the biggest revenue generator for Turkmenistan, agriculture too accounts for a healthy percentage of its GDP. Citizens in Turkmenistan get 120 liters of petrol free every month for car drivers, while TURKMENISTAANtruck/bus drivers get 200 liters of petrol free. Apart from this, electricity too is subsidized for the citizens. Probably, one should not expect beyond this and turn greedy.

CHINA

China, which in this story has earned a slot at number four, also happens to be the world’s fourth fastest growing economy at 9.908% GDP growth rate. In monetary terms, it turns out to be of order of amazing $6 trillion. However, now certain not so desired elements have started to raise their heads. The rising inflation rate in China is a new challenge, which stands in way of growth, of the economy of the country. China’s gross domestic product grew 9.6 per cent in the third CHINAquarter as compared to the same period last year. The growth rate slowed down from 11.9 per cent in the first quarter and 10.3 per cent in the second quarter.

LIBERIA

Even though, the nation still continues to live with dubious and infamous distinction of being one of the poorest countries on earth; Liberia has recorded robust economic activity in past couple of years. This African nation, despite of all said and done, has managed to steal the fifth rank when it comes to the list of world’s fastest growing economies. The Liberia, now as world’s fifth fastest growing economyLIBERIA has a GDP growth rate of 9.003 per cent. It is a $1.05 billion economy. The nation has rich reserves of iron ore, and also exports rubber. In the last few years, it has been receiving a lot of foreign direct investment which has resulted in higher employment, better infrastructure and spurt in economic activity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

————Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

THE DRAGON AND THE ELEPHANT SHOULD TANGO

“THE DRAGON AND THE ELEPHANT SHOULD TANGO,Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao suggested today.

Wen came up with this quip to emphasise the need for the two Asian giants, whose rivalry has been compared to that between the dragon (China) and elephant (India), to come closer.

Speaking to group of editors and scholars before leaving for Pakistan he said that India and China were partners in cooperation and not rivals.

Wen had warm words of appreciation for his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh describing him as a person “with an open and inclusive mind”.

The Chinese leader mentioned that the Cambridge University had brought out a publication containing speeches by him and Singh whose common theme was the importance of open and inclusive societies.

He distributed copies of that publication with his autograph to those present at the interaction.

Wen mentioned that the Indian Prime Minister had last year sent him a gift package of black tea and in return he had sent Chinese white tea. “That reminds me of how our two countries connect with each other.”

China to provide data of Sutlej river to India

China will provide India with real-time flood data of Sutlej river during monsoon, according to an agreement signed between the two countries.

Under the five year agreement, China will set up a special station in Tibet to monitor rainfall and flood to enable India get advanced warnings.

In turn, India will pay Rs 12 lakh per annum to China. The money will be used by Beijing to maintain the station, sources in the government said.

The flood data will be provided twice every day between June and October every year.

“Since we have five to six hydro electric power projects on the downstream Sutlej, the data will help us operate the projects in a safer environment,” a source said.

Floods in downstream Sutlej have been creating problems on the Indian side.

In July this year, India had renewed a similar agreement with China to get flood data of the Brahmaputra river. The agreement was signed in 2004.

Though China had been providing flood data of the Sutlej, the agreement will help streamline the system, especially during the monsoon season. New Delhi had been paying Rs 12 lakh per annum to China for data of the Brahmaputra.

Always Yours– As Usual — Saurabh Singh

Source: Business Satndard


THE ARRIVAL OF U. S. S. GEORGE WASHINGTON AIRCRAFT CARRIER IN YELLOW SEA HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A CONUNDRUM FOR CHINA

THE ARRIVAL OF U. S. S. GEORGE WASHINGTON AIRCRAFT CARRIER IN YELLOW SEA HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A CONUNDRUM FOR CHINA

Professor Saurabh Singh‘s comment on International Polity

Scholar of Domain of Knowledge Named Administrative Sciences


Dilemma of nature that may be dubbed as unique in its own kind, i.e,

?        TO SPEAK OR NOT TO SPEAK

ƒ       Should it protest angrily and aggravate ties with Washington, or

ƒ       quietly accept the presence of a key symbol of American military pre-eminence off Chinese shores

?        BACKGROUND

ƒ        The USS George Washington, accompanied by escort ships, is to take part in military drills with South Korea following North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean island.

ƒ        The Shelling on Tuesday is one of the most serious confrontations since the Korean War a half-century ago.

US George Washington - Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carrier

?           IT’S A SCENARIO WHICH CHINA HAS ALWAYS PREVENT

Only four months ago, Chinese officials and military officers shrilly warned Washington against sending a carrier into the Yellow Sea for an earlier set of exercises

Some said it would escalate tensions after the sinking of a South Korean navy ship blamed on North Korea.

Others went further, calling the carrier deployment a threat to Chinese security.

?           CHINESE BELIEVE THAT THEIR OBJECTIONS WORKED

Although Washington never said why, no aircraft carrier sailed into the strategic Yellow Sea, which laps at several Chinese provinces and the Korean peninsula.

This time around, with outrage high over the shelling, the U.S. raising pressure on China to rein in wayward ally North Korea

a Chinese-American summit in the works, the warship is coming, and Beijing is muffling any criticisms.

PROFESSOR MICHAEL RICHARDSON, Commented..,

[A visiting research fellow at Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies]

“I think China must be quietly cursing North Korea under their breath.”

“The Scenario can very well be taken as a of the adverse Outcome of North Korea’s most recent belligerence.

Belligerence by NORTH KOREA has transformed in “HOT POTATO IN THE MOUTH SCENARIO***” for CHINA

North Korea fire made South Korea two Marrieners

North Korea fire made South Korea two Marrieners

China, as of now can neither “open the mouth nor Keep it shut”; as regards to deployment of U.S. Naval Ship George Washington, which happens to be a Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carrier, in the East China Sea,”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman reiterated Beijing’s long-standing insistence that foreign navies obtain its permission before undertaking military operations inside China’s exclusive economic zone, which extends 230 miles (370 kilometers) from its coast.

The statement also reiterated calls for calm and restraint but did not directly mention the Yellow Sea or the planned exercises.

Chinese Submarines Fleet

Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid, in an editorial expressed its worries by stating  that a U.S. carrier would upset the delicate balance in the Yellow Sea, [Ignoring the fact that the George Washington has taken part in drills in those waters numerous times before.]

North Korea, not ready to come out of its belligerence, has warned that the U.S.-South Korean military drills were pushing the peninsula to the “brink of war.”

 

?        A MORE PASSIVE APPROACH SEEMS A BETTER TRADE OFF FOR CHINA

Its credibility with Washington and trading partner South Korea would get a boost

Put North Korea on notice that its actions are wearing China’s patience thin

PROFESSOR ZHU FENG, Director Peking University’s Center for International and Strategic Studies opined:

“The Chinese government is trying to send Pyongyang a signal that, if they continue to be so provocative, China will just leave the North Koreans to themselves.” He added further that “What China should do is make the North Koreans feel that they have got to stop messing around.”

 

CHINA FEARS RESORTING TO TOUGHER ACTIONS AGAINST NORTH KOREA

Chinese administration is of the view that cutting the food and fuel assistance Beijing supplies — would destabilize the isolated North Korean dictatorship, possibly leading to its collapse.

George Washington Nuclear Powered

The adverse outcome as a resultant of tougher actions against North Korea may lead to flood of refugees into northeastern China and result in a pro-U.S. government taking over in the North in very recent future.

China may also be mindful of its relations with key trading partner Seoul, strained by Beijing’s reluctance to condemn Pyongyang over the March ship sinking. Raising a clamor over upcoming drills in the wake of a national tragedy would only further alienate South Korea.

 

CHINA, PERHAPS ARE INTELLEGENT ENOUGH &, WOULD BE AWARE OF THE ACTS THAT MAY MANISFEST, IF MISTAKE AT ANY LEVEL IS COMMITTED, IN FORM OF BENEFICIAL OR  HARMFUL  TO THE INTERESTS OF CHINA.

NEW ERA ON HORIZON TO HAVE RENEWED EXCHANGES WITH WASHINGTON

  • President Hu Jintao is scheduled to make a state visit to Washington in January hosted by President Barack Obama — replete with a state dinner and other formal trappings that President George W. Bush never gave the Chinese leader.

 

  • Before that Gen. Ma Xiaotian, one of the commanders who objected to the George Washington’s deployment earlier this year, is due in Washington for defense consultations. Those talks are another step in restoring tattered defense ties, a key goal of the Obama administration.

 

Thus CHINA at MOMENT could pray alone and practice Restraints on its Defense Policy and Diplomatic Offices.

CHINESE AIRCRAFT CARRIER SHIP STILL IN PROCESS

CHINA could expect some luck also; as it may land up with few sounds reasons to ask USA to pull out it’s Aircraft carrier George Washington far away from Yellow Sea; as it may be gifted some information in the way of wiki leaks.

Whereas USA and South Korea, as on the moment are planning an artillery exercise  as part of the Whole Exercise with USA troops; the North Korea is busy arranging its array of  missiles, blaming that USA awr exercise has put the Korean Peninsula at the brink of War.

 

————-So better wait and watch; even minor laps, on the part of any party may change or dictate; the whole course of global environment in a manner as to alter the path and orbit other than current; and may be to an unthought-of manner or unimagined or unanalyzed till date. The new equation and chapter may take birth to substitute the present equation in International Relations, Trade, Economy & polity.

 

The discussion in normal context is stopping here for the time being and will be initiated further if set and patterns of variables change due to any reason.

CHINA OTHER VIEW

 

INDIA

I would love to add, before closing, that India till now is required to be on alert but not worried. India has enough might to foil any endeavor having malignancy by any neighboring nation or any lunatic national head. To defend itself, the Mother Nature by itself, has gifted India a number of Cover. Added to that resource gifted to India

Indian Aircraft Carrier

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

happens to KNOWLEDGE, which has added glitter gold and is going to perpetually provide India an edge over any other nation, in the form of its human resource, i.e., Citizen of India.

—————–Professor Saurabh Singh, Subject Matter: Administrative Sciences; INDIA

 

[The closing paragraph and few pictures have been added for India Audiences of my Blog, due to their status of fellow citizen.]

Indian Sindhu Vijay Submarine

Indian Sindhu Vijay Submarine

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** The Phrase coind by Mr. Saurabh Singh to express a situation in which “one can neither swallo nor omit the things in mouth”.

 

Always Yourd —  As Usual —- Saurabh Singh


AHEAD FROM PREVIOUS POST [Bank of Japan back in stimulus mode……]

…………….AHEAD FROM PREVIOUS POST

[i.e., Bank of Japan in Stimulus Mode]

The case of Bank of Japan and that of the Federal Reserves at USA turns to be a clear example of  two events, i.e, First being What is Meaning of Zero Interest Rate Regime and Second it demonstrates a great wide valley of interest rate deferential being created among Developed Economies on one side and Emerging Nations Economies on other side. The same was very much visible in the recently concluded IMF Meet of Finance Ministers and Central Banker of these two clear groups.

The two self styled protagonists to name United States of America for Developed Economies and the other one being China for Emerging Economy Nations, could not reach any point of consensus to overcome currency war spread across the Globe. In the ensuing blame game, on one hand USA was requesting IMF-World Bank to make and keep a through visible on currency valuation and exchange rate in China; China spread its worry and held United States of America responsible for destablinsing the economies of the nations grouped as emerging economies. China claimed that it was not only the alone case of what USA managed in Brazil, but China and India too are not being spared.

Few of nations coming under Emerging Economies out of a list of Twenty Eight now are taking the measures to start putting a tax regime on certain kind of cash inflows as well as inflows above a certain volume too. If all the emerging nations are going to be forced to adopt such measures, then very fabric of Global Markets and Globalization as process will become extinct soon and defeat the objectives of the agreements already signed in this direction. But then, this is a situation as on date, which has a very small but sure probability of  shaping out, given the behavior and turn being witnessed in the fiscal as well as monetary policies of Developed Economies.

In an effort to conclude the write up so as it could be gone through easily the is being turned to Indian Markets. Indian Markets may get saved from the damage that huge amount of Cash Inflows are capable of causing. But till the task is not over, the torchbearers at Indian Economic Infrastructure, may not afford a sound sleep.

As per the expectations and sentiments in Indian Economy at present, launch of a large number of IPOs is being expected and awaited. These IPOs may provide a cushion by working as antidotes against huge cash inflows, that may result due to the reasons of a Huge Interest Rate differential.

Its not all over, and will or may continue for longer time with or without time interval, but at the moment I would love to say—————————————————

Always Yours ————— As Usual ———————-Saurabh Singh

 

 

 

Future Business Administrators – Need Know China for Winning the Markets

Attempting to Introduce China to Individuals  With A Wish to make Career in International, trade, business and Governance

THIS COULD BE BEAUTIFUL

While most industries trend downwards in the wake of the global financial crisis, demand for designer apparel and accessories in the world’s third-largest economy is expected to grow 7% this year. According to global consulting firm Bain & Co., the sector will expand faster than any market in the world — with the possible exception of Brazil — until at least 2012.

Club Beautiful is one of many ideas that have surfaced to tap into the growing pool of upwardly mobile young Chinese with the aim of handing the demographic to advertisers on a plate. The social network, brainchild of Jesper Lodhal (above), 34, and co-founder Christian Rajkai, 39, unabashedly trumpets its desire to connect stylish people together so they can judge and be judged: it is the web-based sibling of the trendy cafes that line Fifth Avenue in New York or Oxford Street in London.

“We want to make people more beautiful and stylish. The first step is to create a community for those people to share ideas,” says Lodhal. “We are focused on the connections between people who want to become better looking or who want to share their fashion and style.”


According to the company, their audience is split between “style leaders” — the primary market — and “image seekers,” who look for some of their idols’ stardust to rub off on them. “The interesting point is that [your reception] is based not so much on your natural beauty but the effort you make,” says Lodhal. “In China, the saying goes that beauty is 30% nature and 70% nurture.”


While anyone can join Club Beautiful, the network specifically targets 20 to 35-year-olds that hold steady jobs and, in Lodhal’s words, “spend a lot of time on their appearance.” They are further encouraged to spend time on their looks by Club Beautiful, with other users able to vote on their pictures − higher scores give access to better looking people and higher profile events.

“Once you’re in, you can sign up to see who likes you, and how the opposite gender rates your profile and your pictures,” says Lodhal. “If you want to be influential you can build up your activity level, your experience in beauty and style, which you do through voting on other people and sharing style information.”

There is a certain amount of vain gloriousness attached to the concept, and it might not be one that would gain cultural acceptance in many Western markets. However, the 80s generation of Chinese consumers are distinctive because of their unashamed desire to stand out from a particularly large crowd. Around 60,000 of them have signed up to Club Beautiful since its inception last year, as well as a few thousand expats − enough to attract funding from a handful of angel investors and American IT outsourcing company Symbio Group.

While the company cut its staff of 22 down to around 12 after the economic downturn, the retained employees are, according to Lodhal, desperate to make a success of the venture because they feel excited to be part of such a pioneering project. The website has been up for just over a year, and last month was relaunched with a facelift and fresh features after Lodhal dispatched his management team into the shopping malls of Beijing and Shanghai, as well as gathering feedback from a series of focus groups.

“What we found was that the style leaders don’t connect with Kaixinwang (which offers a normal social networking service and simple internet gaming) because they see [the gaming] as a waste of time,” says Lodhal. “Users were also having trouble identifying [other] stylish people on other social networking sites. If you go to Kaixinwang then you have to browse through around 50% of profiles that are fake or partly fake.” Club Beautiful solves this problem by sending members a unique code, which they must take a picture of themselves with in order to be verified by the site’s content managers.


Ensuring the site is populated by real people adds significant value, not least because they can be guided towards real world venues and products that generate revenue. Users have the option to create events, and to screen who is invited by their classification. Events are currently entirely user-generated but Lodhal is aware of the potential for tie-ups with sponsors and clubs in the future, with current events including hook-ups at KTV and clubs like Lan and Coco Banana in Beijing.

The new content is entirely in Chinese, though an English version of the update is in the pipeline. “One of the better decisions I have made was to remove Westerners (including me) as the driving force behind product management,” Lodhal says. “Since I did, development speed doubled and user feedback improved dramatically.”


The site is, as yet, uncluttered by advertising, as Lodhal and his team are keen to avoid alienating users by forcing products down their throats that they may or may not necessarily wish to buy.

It is a risky ploy, but one that is part of a longer-term development strategy. “We are focusing on growing users; we need to add value to the database,” Lodhal says. “Then we’ll focus on stickiness and keeping people on the site. Step three is the revenue phase where we will, sometime in the next year, embark on a new venture capital round.”

Lodhal is waiting for his user base to reach a critical mass before investing in a serious marketing campaign. Obtaining a sufficient “viral factor,” as Lodhal calls it, is key to ensuring there is enough awareness of the site to maximize the benefits of an advertising drive. However, playing the long game in China carries additional risk because there are countless other entrepreneurs waiting in the wings to hijack a good idea and exploit it. While the country’s intellectual property protection laws have made considerable progress in recent years, the brouhaha in the more tightly regulated US market over who created Facebook’s original code should be enough to prompt developers of even the most niche products to bind their target audience as quickly as possible.

The company is considering a number of revenue models; from micropayments in order to acquire other users’ feedback, to pay-at-the-door events. “Then there are of course the advertisers,” Lodhal says raising his eyebrows. “There are some smart targeted advertising models out there − some of the style leaders can endorse products, for example. If I have an idol on Club Beautiful and he likes the Omega brand − I like Omega as well now.”

They are also open to the idea of a profit-sharing agreement with a site like Taobao who could directly sell products owned and showcased by Club Beautiful users.


The problem for the company is that it evidently does not have a clear idea of how it is going to make money. While existing funds may be plentiful — Lodhal would not disclose his investment capital but the lack of urgency over securing an income stream suggests he is not short of a buck or two — the company will have trouble attracting capital in the future unless it can demonstrate a functioning and successful revenue model.

Lodhal is adamant that no-one else is pioneering his idea in China, and that very few, if any, are attempting it elsewhere. Yet there is an existing website, P1, that plays upon a slightly different but related idea. Their website is the social networking equivalent of the Freemasons – potential members must convince the site’s operators that they are trendy enough to enroll, or obtain one of the restricted number of invites from the site’s 500,000 existing users. The site is emblazoned with ads from brands like Bentley and Versace.

Club Beautiful’s decision to shun direct advertising may very well have been motivated by the need to offer users a reason to steer clear of potential competitors. The network is catering to some of the world’s most sought-after consumers and it is important to make them feel special and influential or they might take their business elsewhere. However, implementing the type of viral advertising model Lodhal is toying with is easier said than done, and it is hard to envisage a high-end brand warming to the idea when the company has yet to demonstrate that its idea works any better than direct advertising.


Lodhal knows that success is not guaranteed: “It’s all untested, but it’s such a big market out there,” he says. The company is well worth keeping an eye on, but the longer it operates at a loss the harder it will be to convince investors, advertisers and sponsors that beauty truly is everything.

Always Yours — As Usual—— Saurabh Singh, India

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